D3x and AF-S Primes – Upcoming Shows and Possibilities
So we still don’t have a D3x, we don’t have a D900 (if that’s coming any time soon), and we don’t have the 28m, 50mm, and 85mm primes we’re hoping for, no 70-200mm nano-coated VR2, no f/4 lenses (though I can do without them). But we’ve got some upcoming shows.
So let’s take a look at when we can expect to see new offerings ordered by date:
IFA 2008: August 27 through Sept 03, Berlin, Germany.
The D3 as announced for this event last year (Jeez, has it been that long?) This is supposed to be the largest consumer electronics show around.
But there’s zero buzz right now, and since we just got the D90 announced, I don’t think we’ll see anything new.
Photokina 2008: Sept 23 through Sept 28, Cologne Germany.
All the rumors are saying this is the show where we can expect something new. People are saying new AF-S primes but I’m losing hope. Its placement on the calendar means that it’d be well-placed for the Christmas season, but Pros don’t tend to buy high-end gear for their loved ones. I would be surprised if we don’t see some new, uninspired Coolpix’s though.
WPPI 2009:Feb 12 through Feb 19, Las Vegas, Nevada.
This is where Nikon is a sponsor and something “BIG” is supposed to happen according to an ad in Rangefinder Magazine. I’m doubting any significant announcement, but who knows?Maybe BIG means the D3x, but isn’t a show for wedding shooters a strange place to announce a high-res version of the D3?
PMA 2009: March 1 though March 4, Las Vegas, Nevada.
If Nikon has anything huge to annouce, I’d put my money on this show merely due to its place on the calendar- it’s far enough away from the other announcements its made. I’m guessing Nikon will be relatively quiet for a few months, then pull out a D3x or something else interesting to get them back in peoples’ minds.
But one can never predict our favorite hermit-company.
August 29th, 2008 at 14:48
This is getting a little boring, Nikon is no more hermit, secretive, sinister, mysterious or anything else. If anyone can show me ANY other LEADING camera company that publishes accurate and reliable roadmaps i will eat my D3.
August 29th, 2008 at 15:13
What about Photo Expo in NYC in Oct.? Wouldn’t that be a good time and place to launch a pro body?
August 29th, 2008 at 23:48
Thom Hogan posted something about the fact that it’s unlikely that Nikon will produce anything else of consequence this year. His numbers are different than my calculations, but I agree that we won’t see anything else, EXCEPT if that’s the case, I’m a bit surprised that Nikon didn’t save anything for Photokina, since they always have Photokina announcements.
Nikon put out 4 Lenses in 2005, 5 in 2007 and 8 so far in 2008:
2006 4 (70-300G VR, 18-55DX without VR, 18-135DX, 105 micro)
2007 5 (55-200 DX VR, 18-55DX VR, 400VR, 14-24, 24-70)
2008 8 (500 VR, 600 VR, 16-85, 18-105, 60 micro and the three Tilt-Shifts)
(Obviously, this assumes that everything listed above is actually available.)
Since 1992, Nikon has released 74 AF lenses (including the Tilt-Shifts and the PC85, but not including other manual lenses) which is an average of 4.4 a year. Of those, I count 50 in current release.
DSLRs: There have been 3 each year in 2006, 2007 and 2008
Coolpix: There were 12 new models in 2006, 16 in 2007 and 16 so far in 2008 including the L16, which isn’t sold in the U.S.
So…based on past history, unless Nikon has got some big surprises up its sleeve, I’m not too optimistic about any more 2008 releases, although I suppose there’s room for another one or two Coolpix models (yawn!). That doesn’t mean they can’t announce something which won’t be out until sometime in 2009 though.
And of course there’s much speculation about the WPPI “Big” whatever as well as continued rumors about a rangefinder, which I don’t believe. But I didn’t think the D3 was coming either.
And if you look at the past lens release numbers, that means we could see anywhere between 4 and 13 new lenses in 2009. Even another six lenses could be pretty interesting!
August 30th, 2008 at 23:23
I am your basic amateur Saturday afternoon photographer who has no need for the vast majority of lenses made by Nikon. I own a D300 which I primarily use to shoot pics of the kids playing sports. I have no need for tilt and shift lenses or fast primes, let alone $8000 superzooms. My only wish is for Nikon to update its dog slow 80-400 to an AFS version I can use during Saturday afternoon football games. Canon had their 100-400 USM version years ago. I wish Nikon would get with the program.