What’s Next for Nikon?
Speculation: D3xs D700x D3x
There aren’t any good rumor around, so let’s speculate!
Trends What general themes have we been seeing over the last few years:
More Megapixels: This is a no-brainer, the market demands.
Better Noise Characteristics: The market really was not demanding this, but we got it anyway with the D3, then we saw much better than expected noise characteristics in the D3x and Canon still has yet to equal Nikon’s abilities.
Thus I’m going to bet that we’ll see more effort from Canon to attempt to catch up than we’ll see Nikon get substantially better. In addition, this is much more a hardware (sensor) design issue than a software-bottlenecked area- the software is only likely to get marginally better, whether inside the camera, or on my crazy 4-core machine.
Smaller Bodies: There’s no good reason we couldn’t get the D3’s sensor in a smaller body, and voila! Since the D3x is a D3 with a different sensor (and software), we’re very likely to see a D700x or similar.
Backfilling Lenses: Nikon knows it’s missing AF-S primes. They threw the beginner SLR (D40, D60, etc) owners a bone with 50mm (those cameras couldn’t use the AF version). Now they can get us an 85mm AF-S and I’ve got money waiting for a good 35mm AF-S prime.
So what’s missing, lens-wise: Primes- 35mm, 28mm, 16mm fisheye, 85mm. Anything else?
[Update: I'd gladly slap down $2k for an AF-S Noct, preferably in the 35-45mm range.]
The Economy: Clearly, this is the worst of all the trends. Here’s what I’m expecting:
More Point-and-shoots: God save us from the Coolpix invasion. They’re cheap, you can’t tell one model from the next, P&S buyers are into megapixel, zoom, size, looks. Nikon is likely to crank them out.
More Special Editions: Hey, remember the horrific gold-edition D60? Want a gold-edition D90?
More Gimics: I’m going to go out on a limb here- we’re going to see movie mode slipped into some existing models, or some D*x bodies with movie mode. I can definitely see it on the D3 and D3x- let’s call them the D3s and D3xs models. Maybe with a touch-screens too.
If we’re lucky, we’ll also see upgraded bodies with WiFi slapped into them (or GPS and WiFi)- it’s too easy, it costs next to nothing, the physical is next to nothing, and the battery usage is tolerable. IMO- only Nikon trying to sell us WT-4a’s has prevented this so far.
More Smaller Stuff: I suspect we’re going to see some interesting smaller projetcs. For example- I can’t see any reason we can get a bluetooth adapter for our flashes to get RF into action without buying pocketwizards or similar add-ons. Like wifi- bluetooth is legal frequency spectrum just about everywhere on earth at this point.
Fewer high-end bodies: Why spend the R&D when the sales of the bodies aren’t going to see a quick return?
Fewer high-end lenses: Those missing primes I just mentioned? Unless they’re just about to be announced (PMA?), they’re unlikely to happen. Same reason as the high-end bodies.
February 4th, 2009 at 04:34
I would like to have more dynamic range in the CMOS sensor.
Multi iso in the same frame?
What do you think?
February 4th, 2009 at 10:40
Bluetooth would be nice. I’d love to be able to use a standard GPS receiver, and a standardized remote would also be nice. It would open the door for other devices like a console for controlling CLS, a mic for recording annotations, or even a keyboard for entering metadata.
February 4th, 2009 at 21:35
Cuzzle:
I agree that increased dynamic range is the future. There’s a number of people looking at this, but most of the techniques involve measuring exposure on a pixel by pixel basis and adjusting as such. What I’ve always pictured (and should have patented, but figured I wasn’t that smart and someone probably already did) is the equivalent of an auto-variable density filter that sits on top of each pixel and adjusts for proper exposure.
I would imagine in this case, one would expose for the shadows and let the filter bring down the highlights so they don’t burn out.
An alternative approach would be to develop a sensor that has a lot more dynamic range so that you don’t have to limit exposure.
Another alternative approach would be to do HDR in a single frame where the camera recognizes which part of each image to use the replacement exposure for. Or maybe it still takes different exposures in separate frames so you can manipulate them later (a special version of auto-bracket where the exposures are farther apart), but it also automatically generates a “sum” frame where it generates its own “shot” at HDR.
I think remote functionality and tethering (wired or wireless) improvements will be addressed. Those connections and workflow are not as smooth as they should be.
And I think we’re also see continuous improvements in improving noise performance at high-ISO and high resolutions. And unless rejected by the market, we’ll see continuous improvements in motion video quality and to a lesser extent, associated audio.