No D700x?
A poster at dpReview says that Nikon Austrialia has told him there will not be a D700x:
‘Just talikjng to Nikon in Sydney Australia, (I think that’s where they are, its a 1300 number..), and the technical guy said “We’ve just heard, there will be no D700x!”.
Oh well..
Can you trust this report from RandomInternetGuy(tm)? No, but I think it would be surprising for Nikon to launch a D700x when I’m sure the D3x is selling at around expectations.
“Honey, I’m hungry, have we got any crow around?” In truth, I’m partly wrong, partly right. So let’s call it:
D3000: I Predicted: Not soon, if ever. Reality: Announced today, due November.
D300s: I Predicted: “Questionable”, not 1080p HD. Reality: Announced today, due November– 720p.
New Nikkor 70-200mm: Prediction- not this year. Reality: Announced today!
New 18-200mm: Prediction- “no reason not to update it”. Reality: it’s here. Admittedly, my prediction is squishy, so I’ll only claim partial credit.
D700x: Prediction – not likely. Reality- still not announced. Since every other item announced is due in November (as I predicted, for Christmas), I’m doubting it’s forthcoming this year, if ever.
Nikkor 24-135: Prediction – “Who knows, who cares.” Reality- still not announced.
Nikkor 35mm f/1.4 AF-S: Prediction – if this year, ready for Christmas. Reality- still not announced.
Nikkor 85mm f/1.4 AF-S: Prediction – Possibly, but doubtful this year. Reality- still not announced.
Nikon VL1 - 50 Megapixel Super-Rumor
We’ve seen rumors like this before, this one adds in the whole ‘modular digital nikon’ concept:
Supposed specs:
Supposed Release: September 15, 2009. $10k.
I’m calling big bullshit on this. Even at rev. N wifi speeds, it’d be too slow and this just seems like a wish-list drawn up by fanatics, not like a plausible system designed by Nikon and, apparently, already functioning.
In addition- if they continue to write software like CaptureNX, then this thing will be a pain to deal with unless you’re using LightRoom or something.
Plus, again, there’s 0 reason to launch it in this economy.
Nikon D300s/D3000 Roadmap Rumor Roundup
Lots of rumor about tomorrow and future dates. I’ve been called out for not placing my bets on legitimacy, which I disagree with, but I’ll place my bets. I absolutely guarantee at least a 0% accuracy rating:
D300s: Engadget, Nikon Rumors, et al are reporting (with images) a possible Nikon D300s. Changes? Possibly an SD card and some histogram changes?
D3000: Similar reports of a Nikon D3000.
New 18-200: They sell a lot of this just ok lens- but what’d you expect in a zoom range that extreme. Amateurs love the huge range, no reason not to update it- they’ll sell a ton.
Coolpix’s with a project built-in?
I’ve seen this rumor reported a bajillion places and I’m calling bullshit. The chance that the hermit camera kingdom has a corner and decided to get all “open and transparent” is about as likely as a digital Holga. Also, while some of these project may be planned, there’d be 0 reason to release them in this economy. It also has that whiff of some dork’s (like me) wishlist. What’s more, there’re lots of posts in various places stating that this started out as a foreign language gag post to a list that then was translated and lost the “joke” portion of the post.
But here it is:
2009 Nikon Roadmap (Bodies)
Nikon D3000
12.3MP, 7 AF points, ISO 200-3200 extendable to 6400, 3.5fps, Video ?
Prediction: What’s the point- these specs are way too similar to the D5000. This model may exist at some point, but I don’t see it soon.
Nikon D300s
12.3MP, 7fps, HD video (1080p .mov h.264, 24fps), CF and SD cards slots, 920,000 pixel LCD screen
Prediction: Questionable. Maybe a rev’d D300 will come out, but I’d be very surprised if it did 1080p h.264- that takes a lot of horsepower and I don’t see it happening at this price-point.
D700x
24.5MP, 5fps, HD video (1080p .mov h.264, 24fps)
Prediction: I’d bet my minty D2x that the highest cost item in the D3x body is the sensor due to its probably low yields and I get the feeling that the motivation behind this rumor is that people would love to have a smaller, cheaper D3x body. But what’s in it for Nikon? The D3x is still expensive and likely very profitable, plus if you need it, you can afford it. So- I predict unlikely.
2009 Nikon Roadmap (Lenses)
AF-S Nikkor 24 to 135 mm f/3.5-5.6G ED VR: Who knows, who cares? Variable aperture lenses are not on my shopping list- I’ve had it with doorstop lenses- well, maybe they’d be fine on that digital holga…
AF-S Nikkor 70-200mm f/2.8G ED VR II: This will happen, I doubt it’ll be this year, they’re already selling plenty of lenses and I doubt they’re going to dedicate R&D + production capacity to this. When it comes out, I’m expecting a $200-$300 increase to come with it. If it’s 2009, I’m guessing ~ Christmas release.
AF-S Nikkor 35 mm f/1.4G (FX): This will happen, I’ll be surprised if it’s this year, if it is, I’m guessing Christmas again.
AF-S Nikkor 85 mm f/1.4G (FX): A given, possibly this year, but I’m also doubtful.
2010 (Bodies)
Nikon D4
15.7MP (more sensitive and with less noise), Up to 16fps with “double exposure”, ISO 200-12800 (plus extended range), 61-point AF, 1080p video at 30fps, CLS control (although no flash is mentioned)
Prediction: Quite possibly, I doubt 16fps, and hey, if we’re doing 30fps all full HD 1080p (which I doubt), then wtf do I only get 16dfps? While I’d love to get some more focus points out toward the edge, I wonder if that’ll actually happen.
Nikon D400
13.8MP (more sensitive and with less noise), 8fps, Up to 12fps with “double exposure”, ISO 200-6400 (plus extended range), 61-point AF, 1080p video at 24fps
Prediction: I don’t see 1080p, but maybe. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this before the D4 comes out though.
Nikon D4x
30.2MP, ISO 100 – 6400, 6fps, 1080p video at 30fps
Prediction: Hey, wtf not. Doubt it’ll be 2010 though.
Nikon D5000 / D500 Rumors
The void that surrounded this camera back in the PMA 2009 timeframe is starting to take form.
Engadget has found a shot from a retailer in Japan that was up then taken down.
The primary interesting item is an articulated LCD and possibly enhanced in-camera video editing. Otherwise, seems a bit like a D60 maybe. Price should be ~$600-800?
Also, you hopefully didn’t miss these (presumably?) real product shots of the camera .
I’m still pretty confused about the product name and tempted to say that D5000 may not end actually being the name, but there aren’t any signs that point to any OTHER name so….
Interestingly too- the screen is attached at the bottom of the normal LCD place which means that it swings down instead of to the side like many movie cameras:
Nikon D5000 Leaked Shots
See the rest of DTown.
Rumor: Next Nikon SLR is DX Format- D400? D350?sd
A great NIkon listserv posting by a reputable person who very well could know says that the next Nikon SLR will not be a full-frame body, but will be DX format. If you’re interested in the list, please mail me.
What’re the specs, when, what price? All unknown at this point.
I’m going to place a bet on an upgraded body like the D300 with something inexpensive added on maybe better flash, integrated GPS, better LCD, wifi?
Ken Makes it Up: Nikon MX Forecast
Oh good grief- devoid of any serious information, Ken speculates on the Nikon MX medium-format camera system. I’m going to report it because his pointless speculation is now almost funny:
Nikon may have done what we all want, which is use a real 54 x54mm square sensor with a resolution of 6,380 x 6,380 pixels.
This is fantastic; it’s the same size as a mounted 2-1/4″ transparency.
I would sure love my square medium-format back- I miss shooting that way with my hassie. But let’s get real- maybe some day we’ll see something like this, but I think it would surprise everyone.
Nikon D5000?
PMA is March 1st to the 5th this year and there’s only one rumor. Nikon Rumors is reporting:
…Nikon D5000 is real – it has a swivel display that rotates in all directions; 12.3 Mpx sensor…
Well, let’s just see. Given that we aren’t hearing this from any other source, I’m taking it with a grain of salt- could be another P&S
A swivel display is really nice if you’re taking a self-portrait and while I wanted one on the D3 for live-view, I’m happy to report that the viewing angle on the LCD of the D3 and D3x are still totally usable if you hold the camera at odd angles (like over your head). So it wasn’t as important as I’d thought.
Also, does the fact that it’s number might be 5000 instead of, say, 65 make any difference? Who knows. I’m tempted to bet that if we do see an SLR like this, it won’t be a number higher than 100, but who knows.
Again, I also expect to see lower-priced, less capable cameras being released until we bottom out of the global recession, so I’m not getting my hopes up about anything very interesting being released.
Wanna see some good solid-modeling (3d rendering?)
Fake Nikkor 10-18mm
Wanna see some more?
Fake Nikkor 10-18mm
I’ll let the Chinese guys point out the issues here (translated).
In addition- wtf would Nikon make this lens when they just came out with the 14-24mm? If this was a fish-eye zoom or something, then maybe I could see that- but the “samples” from this lens are clearly not fish-eye.
Let’s stop wasting everyone’s time. This is a far better use of 3d modeling skills.
There are currently no credible reports of an updated Nikon 80-400mm lens.
There are also no credible reports of an updated NIkkor 70-200mm f/2.8 with Nano-coating.
In fact, there are -no- credible reports of any new lenses in the pipeline.
Nikon Price Increases?
Well, we’re seeing a lot of chatter about price increases in February. Specific countries like Australia apparently are getting 15-20% increases soon, the UK has also been mentioned. I haven’t seen anything solid on the US though.
But here’s the thing- the economy’s in toilet right now and it’s not going to climb out any time soon and the Yen’s on the rise. Bad economy means fewer sales, products produced with a strong Yen mean they’re pricier for every other currency, thus higher prices and fewer sales.
Nikon, rightly, expects to do sell less product and do worse than they have during the last few years, so they’ve laid off workers. Laying off workers means they’re combating selling less product. I’d expect to see more layoffs in the future.
But notice that many of their consumer-grade products and lenses are made in China and Thailand. China has a fixed currency exchange rate which keeps it artificially low and Thailand’s Baht has moved down substantially vs the Yen too. So, for the cameras at least, the strength of the Yen should have less an impact than you would expect.
This means they’re combating both a stronger yen and few sales.
So predictions: I would be a bit surprised to see significant price hikes for countries whose currency hasn’t declined a lot vs the Yen (that would exclude Australia), and I’d be just as surprised to see a world-wide increase in the price of the D3x (as I’ve seen a lot of chatter about).
The D3x is already too pricey, and unless it’s been flying off the shelves, there’s no reason I can see to make it more expensive. So I’m betting that the prices (in the US anyway) for the D3x will stay the same.
But you know what they say and predicting the future- you only do it if you want to prove yourself a fool…
Nikon Australia Dealer Price List
I’ve run businesses (small ones) so I do understand the costs associated with providing things for the public to buy, especially when your business is located in Manhattan, and I’m ok with paying reasonable markups. But I think it’s also reasonable to know how much I’m being taken for.
That’s why my little heart filled with a small amount of joy when Tim forwarded me a spreadsheet that he got from Nikon Australia with both the manufacturer’s recommended price and the wholesale dealer prices!
Here’s the full price list (xls) with markup added.
What’s the upshot?
* Coolpixs: You’re paying 19% margin
* Bodies: D3, D3x kits ~14%, consumer-grade bodies like D60 kit ~18%
* Still like film? That’ll cost you. That F6 you were looking at? 16%. FM10 26%!
* Lenses: almost uniformly 22% markup. Some are 18%, exotic pro stuff is 14% except the 300mm f/2.8 which is 22%.
* Flashes are basically 25%. If you lose any of those flash accesories and you’ll pay anywhere from 30 to 100+%!
* Binoculars are ~30%
* Chargers are roughly 50% in most cases
* Batteries range from 30-82% for an en-el8!
* Eyepieces (diopter adjustment, etc) at nearly uniformly 100%
* Filters- 30-60%
* Lens hoods- almost all 100%
Thanks Tim!
A reputable list has a posting of what the poster believes to be the Japanese price for the D3x:
…898,000yen. [ed: That's $9,431.69 per Google today!]
Whoa, that’ quite a bummer. Basically as of today I could buy 4.5 D700 with a resolution of together 54MP for the price of one D3x.
I guess this prices translates into roughly 8000USD in the USA and 6000Euro in Europe.
…
Tomorrow at 1pm JST will be the official announcement.
Japanese Standard Time (JST) is UTC+9, Eastern Standard Time is UTC -5, that’s 14 hours difference- Japan’s 14 hours ahead of EST. So, if my calculations are correct (and I’m not vouching for them), 13:00 JST is 23:00 (11pm) EST on today- Sunday.
We should get some more info later tonight- but I wouldn’t expect the US price to be that high- I find it hard to believe that they’d sell all that many copies if it’s really that expensive, especially since the Canon’s aren’t quite that pricey. I’m betting that we see a price closer to $7k or $7.5k.
Btw- NO NEW LENSES are expected, despite the rumors, and I’m not expecting any surprises at this point.
D3x Info Released a Day Early On Accident
From a reputable list:
Subject: Re: Nikon pro mag
Date: Sat, 29 Nov 2008 01:09:05 +0900
I phoned Nikon UK earlier today and they said that although they cannot give any information yet, to phone on Monday when they should be able to reveal all.Apparently the magazines should have been sent out on Saturday so that they would have been delivered on Monday, but some plonker sent them out yesterday by mistake. They cannot release any further information until the official announcement on the 1st December 2008.
Reportedly from Nikon Pro magazine (Euro? Note the British spelling of “colour”, etc), supposedly NOT fakes (click for larger images):
Confirmed. Not Fakes. (click for larger images)
Nikon D3x Scans/info from NikonPro Magazine
Nikno D3x info from NikonPro Magazine
Nikon D3x info from NikonPro Magazine
Summary
So what are we looking at- basically a FF D2x sensor in a D3 body– should make the landscape and studio guys happy, I’ll stick with my amazingly good high ISO capabilities for a while, I think.
Quicky text transcription of the features:
The Sensor
The D3x has an exclusive 35.9×24mm (fx format) 24.5mp image sensor with unique OLPF (optical sensor low pass filter) and high speed channel readout ISO range covers the equivalent of 50-6400.
The Focus
The widely acclaimed speed and accuracy of the MultiCAM3500 AF system with 51-AF points individual selection assumes a new importance of combination with the high resolution it’s easy to isolate and focus on small details in the scene.
Speed and Response
At full 24.5mp resolution, the D3x shoots at 5fps, 7fps is possible in crop mode. The camera is as responsive as the super-fast D3 12ms start up with a shutter release lag time of just 41ms (CIPA standard). It writes files to the dual CF slots at about 35mb per second.
Image Processing
The D3x’s 16bit EXPEED engine is specially tuned to deliver detail-rich colourful files with low levels of noise and high detail. It is also tuned to minimise the effects of colour fringing with older F-mount Nikkor lenses, and to miminise he effect of unnatural looking (digital) noise patterns. Vignette (peripheral fall-off) can also be controlled for creative effect.
Active D-Lighting
The D3x features a new Extra High Active D-Lighting setting, designed to better manage extremely high-contrast scenes, especially tonal gradation in highlights.
Scene Recognition System
Information from the 1005-pixel RGB sensor with diffraction grating is used to recognise the subject position and colour prior to capture. The results are then used by autofocus, auto-exposure and auto white balance.
Live View
The D3x is the highest resolution digital SLR yet to offer Live View. Allowing photographers to compose and shoot via the 3in monitor instead of the viewfinder brings a variety of practical advantages both in the studio and on location. Two modes are offered, Handheld and Tripod. Contrast-detect autofocus is available in tripod mode.
Monitor
3-inc wide angle (170deg) rear viewing screen, with 922,000 dots, is ultra-high definition and proven to exhibit extraordinary levels of damage resistance.
The Interfaces
USB 2.0 downloads images off the camera fast when tethered, and flexibly when connected with the WT-4 wireless transmitter. With both HDMI and AV/Out ports. GPS data can be captured into the EXIF as before. The new compact Nikon GP-1 GPS unit can also be attached via the 10-pin terminal mounted in the hotshoe, or clip on the camera strap.
Power Management
The D3x uses the same high performance lithium-ion battery (EN-EL4a) as the D3. Thanks to efficiencies in the camera’s on-board EXPEED image-processing system, battery performance is comparable with the D3.
The Body
Extremely durable magnesium construction with egonomically optimised and weather-sealed button, dial, and LCD displays. Extensuve use of highgrade rubber grips means the body is comfortable to handle for long periods of time, and in a wide range of temperatures.
Rumor: Nikon D3X Was Delayed 6+ Months
This is an interesting bit of info from a reputable Nikon list:
It must be 2 or 3 years ago that I heard from somebody who shot an early prototype of the D3x and what he told me about the details he saw in the images made me want one. The camera itself was actually scheduled for release early this year, but due to some last minute glitch, they delayed the launch 6 months and then again some more months. …
That’s really interesting and might explain why Canon/Sony were able to come out with their high-res models earlier than Nikon.
I’m guessing that chip manufacturing or SW was the cause of the delay, but who knows?
[11/28 Nikon Pro D3x shots and info]
There are shots (likely real) of the new D3x along with a wad of info in this post.
[/Update]
[11/27 Price Update]
From a reputable Nikon list:
A friend of mine was in a Kansas City Camera store last week and was told approximately $7500.00.
[/Update]
Ok- we know that “Something BIG” has been announced.
Speculation ranges from a new printer (unlikely, I think) to the medium-format high MP body (the rumored “mx-format”), to a D3x.
I’m guessing it’s the D3x- a new higher MP, decent ISO performance (but not matching the D3) pro dslr body.
Prices are unknown though I’ve just seen 7000euro mentioned. 7kEU in USD is way too high- for that, I could get a digital Mamiya. So let’s presume that it’ll be rouhgly 7k US, which is much more likely, but $6499 sounds better to me.
An interesting note on the price is that if 7kEU is actually the price, and the USD price is a direct translation of about $8750, then that price seems high enough to cover the initial year of likely losses for a new larger chip format like the MX! To make that a little clearer, if Nikon DOES make an MX body, the chip is likely to be extremely expensive since the rejection rates on large chips is high. Typically, the rejection rate goes down over time, so the first year may be a loss, but after that, the process improves and the per-unit cost of the chips go down because there are fewer and fewer rejects. But, I’m dismissing this- I’ll bet $10 on the D3x at 24mp.
We’ve also heard potential: in-body VR (possible… Sony’s been doing it lately and we’ve got it on other Nikon bodies), built-in wifi, weaker anti-alias filter (possible- moving this into software would likely be easy), higher bits per pixel giving us 16bit images (I doubt it), video (not for 24mp, I don’t think), mirrorless body using an electric (EVIL) viewfinder (completely unpossible in a pro body), tweaked AF or more AF points (not going to happen…), higher FPS (not a chance), which items am I missing? Let me know.
I’m intending to keep track as we get closer and closer, if I’ve missing something, please mail me (link at right).
New Lenses? 80-400 AF-S version 35mm 1.8 AF-S 135mm 1.8 AF-S
I’m reporting this because it’s been a while since we’ve gotten anything interesting about lenses since the 50mm AF-S f/1.4g was announced. However, I’m still thinking this is all possible but unlikely:
D3x is what’s expected, but also to be announced:
- 80-400 AF-S version
- 35mm 1.8 AF-S
- 135mm 1.8 AF-S
I heard this from a fellow working at a MAJOR NY shop. Is it true? I dunno. He also claimed the 135 may have VR. The 80-400 would be VERY welcome. Everyone I know wants a better 80-400 lens. I’m surprised Nikon hasn’t released it sooner.
I see a 35mm AF-S eventually, I’m not sure it’ll be announced next. I can’t see why they wouldn’t follow the 50mm replacement with an 85mm replacement, but who knows?
For me, the 35mm is more useful than the 50mm provided the apertures and the close-focusing distance are similar, so I’d rather have the 35mm than the 50mm, but we still don’t have the 50mm in the hands of reviewers even, so we’re looking at 3-6 months before we can get our hands on the lenses regardless.
The 135mm is interesting, especially if it ends up having VR. VR really ought to be everywhere and I’m willing to pay for it.
Everyone seems to want an 80-400mm replacement, but if you’re not on safari or you don’t shoot sports (I don’t…) then the 70-200mm is probably as much as you can regularly use.
We’re seeing more and more rumors flying about a high-res d3x or d4 or whatever other name. Here’s one from some guy who seems particularly sure:
D3x will be launched officially on the local market on december 1st, this year. 24mp, FX (of course). I just had the chance to see and play a bit with it and the camera is awesome ! The detail rendition is incredible.
Hold your breath, it will have a very interesting spec which – now – makes it clear to me why they put on hold the D3 production. I cannot say more, I just promised to the guy (see this thread: ) to keep my mouth shut (I managed to keep it half shut), but you will REALLY love it !
Just wait. This will be a delightful Christmas for us, Nikonians.
I don’t tend to trust random guys on the internet though 
I’m still really happy with my outrageous high ISO capabilities and the FX format, so anything else we get is just gravy. A modular, or upgradeable sensor body is the only thing I’m really hoping for at this point other than new primes.
RED corp, founded by the guy who started Oakley sunglasses, had a cool idea a couple of years- make a digital video recorder that can use interchangeable lenses (even Nikon and Canon lenses with adapters) with quality as good as 35mm film and sell it for ($17,000) a whole lot less than normal professional movie cameras ($100’s of thousands).
Surprisingly to me, and probably others, they delivered. It’s surprising because it’s not at all unusual for a company to come out of nowhere and promise of disruptive technologies and never hear from them again (hey, remember Silicon Film? They went from ~1997 announcement to 2008 bankrupcy?)
Well lately, they’ve been talking about coming out with an SLR, or video camera with SLR-like capabilities using their movie camera’s 25mp chip (presumedly).
This might be nothing for Nikon and Canon to worry about but it sure would be interesting to have a movie camera capable of good stills, that didn’t suffer from Jello-Shots, and could use just about whatever Nikon or Canon (and others with proper adapters) lenses you wanted to throw at it.
Unfortunately though, the RED cameras (so far) don’t have any sort of autofocus, so I wonder about these in fast-action situations.
If I was putting money on it, I’d think this’ll be interesting to watch but won’t give the Dynamic Duo (Nikon, Cannon) and sleepless nights, at least for a few different revisions of their new system.
