Some of the rumors were true. Here’s a round-up of the announcements:
Overviews: Endaget, dpReview, etc.
Bodies
Nikon D3000
dpReview D3000 quicky hands-on
Nikon D300
dpReview D300s quicky hands-on
Lenses
New Nikkor 18-200mm
Official Nikon 18-200mm f/3.5-5.6G VR II site
New Nikkor 70-200mm with VR II
“Honey, I’m hungry, have we got any crow around?” In truth, I’m partly wrong, partly right. So let’s call it:
D3000: I Predicted: Not soon, if ever. Reality: Announced today, due November.
D300s: I Predicted: “Questionable”, not 1080p HD. Reality: Announced today, due November– 720p.
New Nikkor 70-200mm: Prediction- not this year. Reality: Announced today!
New 18-200mm: Prediction- “no reason not to update it”. Reality: it’s here. Admittedly, my prediction is squishy, so I’ll only claim partial credit.
D700x: Prediction – not likely. Reality- still not announced. Since every other item announced is due in November (as I predicted, for Christmas), I’m doubting it’s forthcoming this year, if ever.
Nikkor 24-135: Prediction – “Who knows, who cares.” Reality- still not announced.
Nikkor 35mm f/1.4 AF-S: Prediction – if this year, ready for Christmas. Reality- still not announced.
Nikkor 85mm f/1.4 AF-S: Prediction – Possibly, but doubtful this year. Reality- still not announced.
Nikon D300s/D3000 Roadmap Rumor Roundup
Lots of rumor about tomorrow and future dates. I’ve been called out for not placing my bets on legitimacy, which I disagree with, but I’ll place my bets. I absolutely guarantee at least a 0% accuracy rating:
D300s: Engadget, Nikon Rumors, et al are reporting (with images) a possible Nikon D300s. Changes? Possibly an SD card and some histogram changes?
D3000: Similar reports of a Nikon D3000.
New 18-200: They sell a lot of this just ok lens- but what’d you expect in a zoom range that extreme. Amateurs love the huge range, no reason not to update it- they’ll sell a ton.
Coolpix’s with a project built-in?
I’ve seen this rumor reported a bajillion places and I’m calling bullshit. The chance that the hermit camera kingdom has a corner and decided to get all “open and transparent” is about as likely as a digital Holga. Also, while some of these project may be planned, there’d be 0 reason to release them in this economy. It also has that whiff of some dork’s (like me) wishlist. What’s more, there’re lots of posts in various places stating that this started out as a foreign language gag post to a list that then was translated and lost the “joke” portion of the post.
But here it is:
2009 Nikon Roadmap (Bodies)
Nikon D3000
12.3MP, 7 AF points, ISO 200-3200 extendable to 6400, 3.5fps, Video ?
Prediction: What’s the point- these specs are way too similar to the D5000. This model may exist at some point, but I don’t see it soon.
Nikon D300s
12.3MP, 7fps, HD video (1080p .mov h.264, 24fps), CF and SD cards slots, 920,000 pixel LCD screen
Prediction: Questionable. Maybe a rev’d D300 will come out, but I’d be very surprised if it did 1080p h.264- that takes a lot of horsepower and I don’t see it happening at this price-point.
D700x
24.5MP, 5fps, HD video (1080p .mov h.264, 24fps)
Prediction: I’d bet my minty D2x that the highest cost item in the D3x body is the sensor due to its probably low yields and I get the feeling that the motivation behind this rumor is that people would love to have a smaller, cheaper D3x body. But what’s in it for Nikon? The D3x is still expensive and likely very profitable, plus if you need it, you can afford it. So- I predict unlikely.
2009 Nikon Roadmap (Lenses)
AF-S Nikkor 24 to 135 mm f/3.5-5.6G ED VR: Who knows, who cares? Variable aperture lenses are not on my shopping list- I’ve had it with doorstop lenses- well, maybe they’d be fine on that digital holga…
AF-S Nikkor 70-200mm f/2.8G ED VR II: This will happen, I doubt it’ll be this year, they’re already selling plenty of lenses and I doubt they’re going to dedicate R&D + production capacity to this. When it comes out, I’m expecting a $200-$300 increase to come with it. If it’s 2009, I’m guessing ~ Christmas release.
AF-S Nikkor 35 mm f/1.4G (FX): This will happen, I’ll be surprised if it’s this year, if it is, I’m guessing Christmas again.
AF-S Nikkor 85 mm f/1.4G (FX): A given, possibly this year, but I’m also doubtful.
2010 (Bodies)
Nikon D4
15.7MP (more sensitive and with less noise), Up to 16fps with “double exposure”, ISO 200-12800 (plus extended range), 61-point AF, 1080p video at 30fps, CLS control (although no flash is mentioned)
Prediction: Quite possibly, I doubt 16fps, and hey, if we’re doing 30fps all full HD 1080p (which I doubt), then wtf do I only get 16dfps? While I’d love to get some more focus points out toward the edge, I wonder if that’ll actually happen.
Nikon D400
13.8MP (more sensitive and with less noise), 8fps, Up to 12fps with “double exposure”, ISO 200-6400 (plus extended range), 61-point AF, 1080p video at 24fps
Prediction: I don’t see 1080p, but maybe. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this before the D4 comes out though.
Nikon D4x
30.2MP, ISO 100 – 6400, 6fps, 1080p video at 30fps
Prediction: Hey, wtf not. Doubt it’ll be 2010 though.
