Nikon Japan- Price-hike April 17th

Zachary on dpReview reports that the Japanese are seeing their prices raised too:

There have been lots of threads recently about Nikon price increases, and people have blamed exchange rates. Now, however, there are Nikon price increases in Japan, too. I went to my local camera store here in Kyoto today and there were signs up saying all new Nikon products would become more expensive on April 17. When I asked, they said they had been informed by Nikon this was the case.

Well this is pretty strange actually, I’m better Nikon will see even worse losses next quarter- raising prices right now is probably not a winning strategy.

Guess we’ll find out. Beyond their quarterly filings- when we start seeing pricing gimmicks like mail-in or instant rebates, you can take that as a sign that they know they’ve priced things too high and are hurting more than they expected.

Nikon Price Increases

I’m seeing various reports of prices rising from not bad to ok and from ok to ok+a little in the US.

Nothing like the Armageddon that was being talked about. But maybe I’m different- another $100 on $1,800 isn’t going to make my choke because the $1,800 already made me choke.

On the other hand- that 200mm f/2 you had your eye on is now $4599.95 from B&H! I’m pretty sure they were ~$4,000 in December. Yikes. (But you already knew- “Only pro’s buy this lense.“)

I used to think used Hassy lenses at $1,000 were expensive.

Nikon D3x Prices Lower in CA

I don’t think I’ve mentioned this yet- last week, I walked into a pawn shop around where I work and saw the random old Canon and Nikon (FM’s mainly), huge Mamiya, and wasn’t too thrilled. Looked a little longer and saw a MINT F’ing F3! The best one I’ve yet seen in person. Looks like grandpa never used it once.

Price? $498.00. Conversation went about like this:

Matt: I’ll give you $250 right now.

Them: No.

Matt: $300.

Them: I don’t think [the owner] will go for that.

Matt: Look- how often is someone going to walk in off of the street, spot a film-body and offer you cash on the spot?

Them: …(unphased)…

Matt: On ebay, I bought one recently in similar condition for $300, you’re not going to do better than that and if you don’t want to sell it to me now, then I’d recommend you sell it on ebay, because no one else is going to walk in and want to buy it.

Them: …(unphased)…

Matt: (leaves)

I can’t quite understand the shop’s way of thinking- presumably they bought the camera with cash and it’s likely sat on the shelf for a while. They’re paying rent and utilities and labor- having inventory sitting on the shelf does nothing to generate income. Also- while their $100 (let’s pretend that’s what they bought it for) is sitting on the shelf in the form of a mint F3, they’re losing the interest they could have been earning on it. A store’s goal is to have as little inventory as practical- they only make money on product turn-over.

I mention this because Brad points out to me that in Canada, the price of the D3x is actually coming down, probably because shops figure it’s better to get a few hundred less on the D3x than nothing at all- inventory sitting around is actually costing you money:

…by last week a number of western Canadian Pro Nikon dealers have dropped the price by $250 and are now advertising the camera at $9199.00. It would seem that the D3x is NOT flying off the shelves in western Canada (an area quite well buffered from the economic malaise hitting almost everywhere else in the world). I haven’t bothered checking, but odds are this is happening right across Canada (both the slow sales and dealer discounts on the D3x).

I’ll be going back to that shop on Friday- maybe I’ll be able to convince them. Likely as not, it’ll be gone and I’ll be kicking myself for letting a near MIB F3hp get past me. Or maybe they’ll see thinks my way- $300 in hand is better than $500 in the form of a camera on the shelf.

Thanks Brad!

Nikon Price Increases?

Well, we’re seeing a lot of chatter about price increases in February. Specific countries like Australia apparently are getting 15-20% increases soon, the UK has also been mentioned. I haven’t seen anything solid on the US though.

But here’s the thing- the economy’s in toilet right now and it’s not going to climb out any time soon and the Yen’s on the rise. Bad economy means fewer sales, products produced with a strong Yen mean they’re pricier for every other currency, thus higher prices and fewer sales.

Nikon, rightly, expects to do sell less product and do worse than they have during the last few years, so they’ve laid off workers. Laying off workers means they’re combating selling less product. I’d expect to see more layoffs in the future.

But notice that many of their consumer-grade products and lenses are made in China and Thailand. China has a fixed currency exchange rate which keeps it artificially low and Thailand’s Baht has moved down substantially vs the Yen too. So, for the cameras at least, the strength of the Yen should have less an impact than you would expect.

This means they’re combating both a stronger yen and few sales.

So predictions: I would be a bit surprised to see significant price hikes for countries whose currency hasn’t declined a lot vs the Yen (that would exclude Australia), and I’d be just as surprised to see a world-wide increase in the price of the D3x (as I’ve seen a lot of chatter about).

The D3x is already too pricey, and unless it’s been flying off the shelves, there’s no reason I can see to make it more expensive. So I’m betting that the prices (in the US anyway) for the D3x will stay the same.

But you know what they say and predicting the future- you only do it if you want to prove yourself a fool…

Nikon-When to buy

In case you didn’t know- there’s another Nikon site out there that maintains a list of where they expect the prices for various bodies and Nikkor lenses to go and when you should buy.

Let’s get this straight: in general, the longer you wait to buy something the less it’s going to cost, with few exceptions.

The main exception is whacky currency fluctuations. The current economy is doing strange things and that’s why we’re seeing Nikon prices tending upward.

The Yen has gone up ~11% vs the USD since the D3 became widely available. Nearly 17% versus the Australian dollar, not quite doubled (if I’m reading the graphs correctly) vs the British Pound, and up >20% vs the Euro.

Recent headlines regarding Yen include: “Nikkei may hover before US data, yen rise a worry” , “Japanese Yen May Strengthen On Declining Global Outlook“, and “Japanese Yen Makes Gains Against Euro, Majors Following Unexpected BOJ Rate Cut“.

Keep in mind though, that currencies fluctuate, meaning that the current runup in the Yen can also go the other way, if you’re being priced out of the market, you might as well wait if the increase is painful to you.

Secondary exceptions are mainly relegated to scarcity and the “Only pro’s can afford this”-tax. Basically, that 600mm Nano VR2 lens you had your eye on is probably not ever going to see any appreciable price reduction. Why? Because “Only Pros Buy This.” That is- businesses that need it can afford it. Amateurs like me generally won’t bother.